Noble Group Analysis



Noble the old darling of Singapore retail traders could be back in action soon. Amidst all the doom and bad press regarding the company debt issues, the stock has rallied strongly since Sep. The previous 2 attempts at 0.20 did not break, but 3 times could be the magic number. It is currently sitting on the support trendline, so an entry to long here is actually low risk.

With the backing of a bullish crude oil, i believe Noble will challenge the 0.20 resistance and possibly break it this time round. If not, cut loss is lean below 0.159. 

Yang Zi Jiang Analysis



Since the last breakout at 0.81, YZJ shipbuilding has rallied further. The quick drop back to 0.80 this week is indication of further strength in the stock. After hitting 0.93 region, the previous gap at 0.98 will be the target.

The Baltic Dry Index is also recovering from the downtrend. Coupled with the strong performance in the Shanghai Market due to the Shen Zhen HK stock connect that is on the horizon, the positive atmosphere should allow YZJ to sail further down this uptrend current.



First Majestic


First Majestic is a major silver mining company listed in the US market. The stock has been consolidating after its drop from $19. Notice how the dips around $8 were always supported. On Friday, First Majestic broke through the $8.88 resistance. I expect the stock to commence its run up from here back to $13. 

Some Stock picks for Dec


First Resources, breakout from short term consolidation on high volume. A clean break above $2.00 will mean $2.15 is reachable. This is a bullish chart!


 Jumbo is bullish too, at all time high. It could break out very soon with the textbook consolidation over the last 3 trading days. look for the break at .67


YZJ has already broken out, immediate target of .915 is in sight, followed by gap fill at 0.98. 



Bitcoin on the rise

While the equity and FX markets have entered into a flux during this election period, Bitcoin has quietly been on the rise. While it was once distrusted and not favored, more governments have started accepting Bitcoins for payments. It is now slowly rolling out across Asia, from South Korea to Malaysia to Singapore. The pic below shows what a Bitcoin ATM looks like, something i believe will become even more common in days to come.

I was quite the noob on the subject of cryptocurrencies until recently when i started becoming interested in means of exchange other than fiat currencies. Looking at how India suddenly declared RS500 and RS1000 notes non legal tender overnight, it should serve to remind us that our livelihood in daily transactions depend greatly on the guarantee from the governments. While i am not advocating panic, i think some diversification will not hurt. 

I see 3 main points that can push the case for Bitcoins. 

1) Decentralised exchange
2) Controlled supply
3) Blockchain technology guarding the ability to counterfeit Bitcoins




These points satisfy the use of Bitcoins as a means of transaction, with the additional advantage that no one can intervene the price through supply control.

Next up, let's look at the trend of Bitcoins. Upon hitting a high of 1150 back in 2014, Bitcoin has been flirting with the resistance band in October and November. It has since broken out at a price of 753, and has maintained above the resistance on a daily basis for a few sessions. I believe new support has been found and Bitcoin will challenge 1150 quite quickly. 

SGDMYR

The SGDMYR pair has consolidated for 1 year since reaching the last high of 3.12 in 2015. The pair has since broken out on a monthly basis. For the month of Nov, if the pair stays above 3.05, we can expect much higher prices to come. I see the pair trading at 3.10 region by Dec.


US Market Outlook


The US Market is looking bullish right now, having broken out of the trading channel over the last 3 months. Should it stay above 2180 for the next 2 trading days, 2200 is the immediate target.


GDX Gold Miners ETF Technical Analysis



GDX is in a short term downtrend since hitting the highs at 31.50s. It has since corrected roughly 30% and has traded sideways for the entire month of October. It is still abit early to claim we are out of the woods yet, but a close above 25 will be the initial confirmation that we are done. That being said, we cannot close below 22.50 which is the low of this current consolidation.

Seeing how Gold has made its initial move up in pre market trading, i am bullish on the performance of GDX tonight. If proven correct, this is an early stage of the Gold miner's bull market, We are barely off the lows of the bear market bottom at 12, while GDX easily hit 65 during the last run up. At this point, i believe this is a yummy trade that i dont want to miss.

Gold analysis


This commodity was once the darling of the market in 2011, when it hit a high of 1920USD/OZ. The market has since forgotten about the shiny metal, leaving Gold to drift slowly down during the last 4 years. From the technical perspective, Gold traded in a macro downtrend channel ever since the highs were reached in 2011. However, the 1000-1100 range did see some support with increased volumes. The initial breakout occurred early in 2016, quietly creeping up into the 1200 level.

This is very typical of new bull markets. When the bottom occurs, no one really notices and no one is talking about them. I was never personally invested in gold before, as i never understood why people paid for investments that yielded no interest or dividend. I am however a new convert while researching through the upcoming trends for 2017.

Firstly, i feel there is a lack of alternative in the current market. SGX stocks have mainly been stagnant for the past few months, the constant threat of rate hikes have kept traditionally hot real estate counters tame and the fragile oil market has broken the pockets of giants like Keppelcorp, Sembmarine and Ezion. The usual popular blue chips have been muted in terms of returns this yr, with no clear trends to trade on. With Gold firming up with a good support base and the potential to breakout, gold makes an attractive alternative.

Secondly, the macro picture is uncertain. S&P is at new highs while the economy is limping along, the threat of a crash ever present. Gold could be the safe haven should the long only funds exit their positions in equities in search of a place to put their money. Traditionally, Gold is the go-to investment when there is uncertainty. Even as we speak, the money managers are already net long on gold, as shown by the red color line in the Commitment of Traders report. The speculators are also covering some of the short term short positions, which suggest reduced interest in keeping prices lower than it is now. That to me, is good news.

The $1360 highs during the Brexit will be the key level to watch. Once it is broken, gold will quickly revisit $1500 followed by the $1700 range. From my gut feel, it shouldnt be a long wait from here.

World direction


Its great to be back blogging, doing what i love. I got busy and distracted with my job, hence the prolonged absence. No long stories, as my style is to cut to the chase. On with the analysis!

S&P500 daily chart. Many people were screaming for a crash, and it was understandable as 2016 has been filled with much volatility. The big red bar in June marked the Brexit event which took the index briefly below 2000, but quickly retraced upwards. My take, from the aftermath of the event is that the US market is bullish. It is a highly illogical conclusion if we judge by the array of bad news, non improving payrolls, possible rate hike in the horizon and poor exports. 

However, the market is sentiment driven, and especially so increasingly in this year, as it has become a weighing scale between long and short futures contract. It does seem which ever tips the scales will drive the market. 

The market has found support at the top of the brexit selldown around 2120, while trading range bound for the last 3 months. This has been achieved without significant selldowns, instead with mini flushes that the market is able to quickly recover from. Such price action is bullish. However, this is part of a bigger consolidation period before the next leg up can happen. For now, it is likely to continue throughout 2016 till a clear break from 2180 can be achieved. The top of this trading range could well coincide with the next rate hike in dec and possibly sell off from there. However, watching how the market trades before and after such events will illuminate the way forward into 2017.