Slaughter of both bulls and bears


The whipsaw seen during the last trading week was fustrating for both the bulls and bears, as both sides are forced to take shorter duration trades to adapt to the market. There are convincing arguments for both sides of the market now. The long- stronger corporate profits in US, undervalued stocks. The short- non-sustainability of yet another US bailout; Euro collapse, global recession.

In my opinion, this is still a range bound market until both extremes have been tested with significant chart patterns. The short term volatility will continue to kill traders unless very wide stops are used. For now, the market seems inclined to break below 2825 support. A persistent sell off from here will see the market testing 2700 lows again. The USD is experiencing a rally, which traditionally causes the market to sell off. Hence we do have a downside bias, but i think one needs to exercise caution in initiating new shorts.

Next move ahead for STI


Friday's non-farm payroll disappointed the markets, triggering more than 200 points dip for the US market. S&P fell back down below 1183 support but on significantly lower volume. There is still plenty of uncertainty and any of the cards (US Bank Failure, Greece, US economy) can potentially trigger yet another round of sell down.

For STI, the earlier days of the week is likely to be down, and i suspect the recent uptrend support will be tested. Watch for a break below the support on heavy volume- if the day closes back positive, this is a bullish signal. The reverse scenario will be a retest of the 2700 lows. The outlook for next week is certainly not bullish yet, hence i reiterate sideline or short.

The next act should be unveiled soon if QE3 takes the headlines. The move should be viewed positively by the market as it creates more liquidity (or take some water out of the sinking boat) for a while longer. In summary, for the aggressive, get short. For the risk adverse, wait for a buying opportunity for the next rebound.


Narrow trading range for STI


STI held above 2744 on very narrow range for the past week. The charts show that there is no strong buying to support a strong rally, yet there is limited downside because of an oversold condition. The lower volume on the trading days below 2744 proves that the market is not inclined to dip further for the time being. Does that point to a rally then?

It does seem likely, and a short term buy trade could be profitable. As usual, i think the key is watching how the rally unfolds and to take quick profits on possible signs of weakness.

The long term buy signal will come in once the market edges closer to the moving averages.



S&P500


The S&P500 closed the day up after Bernanke's speech on Friday, trading within the range established between 1100 and 1200. The last two attempts to break out were met with price rejections driving the index back down. The selling however was on much lighter volume. The clear long signal will arrive if the index can trade above 1200 on clearly higher volume.

However, the nature of the triangular pattern is often a continuation pattern, so it does point towards the possibility of an aggressive shakeout before a real rally occurs. That will be a comfortable area to load up and go heavy long.

For now, the market seems likely to trade within the triangle on light rallies until the next catalyst comes along.

2650 is the next support


The 2744 low has been breached, which points to the ominous continuation of the bearish move downwards. It occured quicker than i expected, but the high volume is genuine. The selling is extremely strong for a good reason- everyone expects the index to move lower.

I do not advocate buying yet, although the market is oversold. Staying on the short side is the way to go, until a basing pattern emerges and selling dries up. Gold should be making fresh new highs again, as the global equities trudge through this turbulent phase. 1900 should be in the cards.


Is it time to buy?



Yes for short term traders, but no for investors. This is unlikely to be the true bottom yet, based on my observations during the 07 crash and the 09 bottom. While the points for the positive trading days look powerful (40-60 points) and are out of the usual STI range, it is important to bear in mind the 100+ points sell down earlier. The market is emotional and the trading ranges are amplified, so the perspective must be taken into consideration. The rebound so far has been on low volume, similiar to the S&P on the US side. Short term traders may be able to gain a quick buck buying into oversold conditions, but profits need to be taken quick. I will move on to the S&P chart to discuss my rationale behind the statement.


The market picture is much clearer on the US side, with the decrease in volume being much more significant. The day ended just slightly higher on a second day of closing just below resistance. Again, applying the same logic, if the market could reverse 50points in a day (400 for DJI), but was nowhere to be found upon approaching resistance, a reversal could be in the cards.
I substantiate my claim with 3 observations:
1) 1/3 of the previous 3 days range-hesistation
2) 2nd day of closing below resistance
3) Cluster of continuation candlestick pattern rather than reversal

Hence, for longer frame trades, it is more strategic to hold back for the time being, and wait for the market events to play out.

Making history- The crash of 2011


I was dead wrong and overly optimistic in my previous post. 2 days have passed and the market has sunk even deeper. As i write, Dow Jones is down 400 points, so i expect STI to gap down tomorrow. 2821 is the next support to watch, and a closing below that hints at yet another low to come. The market is increasingly volatile with emotions raging high, so traders who insist on trading during this period should trade smaller positions with much wider stops. A short term rebound will definitely come in this oversold condition, but this trade will not be an easy one.

On a side note, a lot of experts are recommending defensive stocks as a safe haven amidst the chaos. I do not agree, simply because Singapore's economy is unlikely to escape unscathed from the ring of fire spreading across the West. This is the time when cash is king. In SGD though. Dont hold the wrong one. ;)

Full blown bear in STI


As the saying goes, "The market exists to make as many fools out of man as possible". It is an uncomfortably apt description for last week's trading. In the previous post, i mentioned that the STI was about to move decisively, and the setup looked bullish. There was however, huge concerns over the state of the US economy and the ongoing Euro crisis. The bearish close below 1296 did point towards more downside as good old hindsight made it clear that the Head and Shoulders formation was completed. The 4 day slide alone has already exceeded the target price, so it does seem like the trading for the US market should be in the form of a relief rally and subsequently sideways movement.

Applying this analysis on the STI, it seems more likely that there will be a rebound rally before further dips. The STI is performing relatively stronger to the S&P, so the index may not reach its full price objective. The price target from conventional TA points all the way down to 2500, which i highly doubt will be reached. A more plausible target is around 2900+. With this in mind, the strategy for next week is to buy the rebound, as there should be some decent strength. Traders should however watch out for signs of exhaustion and be quick to take profits. Otherwise, the larger picture is still a short. Link

STI likely to gap down big tomorrow


Based on tonight's movement from the US market, STI is likely to open with a gap down. This morning's sudden strength came as a surprise, which could very well turn out to be a false break. The market is definitely in a selling mode now, after US manufacturing figures fell to 50.9 from 55.3 the month prior. The contraction continues to weigh down on the worsening economic outlook. It will be very tough trying to go long during this period. Hence, i maintain my bearish bias.

STI is about to move decisively


In my last posting, i mentioned 3180 as the level that satisfies the condition of a buy on the STI. Indeed, the index has stayed above this level throughout the week, with relatively high volume but the movement has been relatively cautious. I expected a clear breakout once the level was met, as the previous resistance was cleared. Instead, the trading on last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday showed a pause at 3195. Last week's cluster forms a flag which in typical conditions represents a bullish continuation, meaning that a usual upside outbreak is expected. Since a strong upside is the conventional wisdom, i would be cautious if the index trades below 3177 starting from Monday, as that points towards downside. The momentum has slowed and indicators are screaming 'high risk' for long trades, as they have formed the downward cross from overbought region. For traders holding a long position, i suggest that the small profits be taken if the index trades near 3195 and bounces off.

Fundamentally, the US debt issue could trigger off a round of selling initially should the bonds get downgraded, as the market is likely to equate that with a weak economy. The S&P 500 ended Friday with a close below 1296, which is definitely bearish. I expect the US market to slide and that is likely to washout the fire on the STI, hence my bearish bias.

The debt crisis stage enlarges


For the last two days, the debt crisis curtains have closed on the Europe set and reopened on the next act for the US. The market is in mild caution as the US congress ponder over solutions to alleviate the debt repayment. The figure i garnered from the last check was $800bn in tax raises. The Dollar-Sing exchange has spiked further to 1.20, and Gold is trading above $1600. Jim Rogers must be very happy.

Essentially, the subject in question is the raising of the debt ceiling, the limit that the US can borrow as a nation. The congress has no problems with this action, but is mixed over the method of generating government revenue. The Republicans propose pure spending cuts, while the Democrats propose spending cuts and increased taxes. Either way, the US economy is set to contract if the proposals go through, since the fiscal policies in question work in the opposite direction to the prior loose monetary policies. The economy has been hanging on a thread ever since the subprime, surviving on interest rate cuts and subsequently dollar injects. Based on the weakening outlook and the possible Moody downgrade of US treasury bonds, the USD is likely to head lower. While economic fundamentals suggest that the stock market should not perform, the stock market has actually worked contrary to common sense, rallying higher with each major devaluation of USD. The market is almost behaving like the credit card debtors who heave a sigh of relief every time they manage to clear the month's minimum sum, and tries to avoid looking at the entire sum owed.


While the SnP looks like it is forming a complex head and shoulder's pattern hinting at a huge drop, it could very well turn out to be the start of a major rally based on anything but common sense. Of course, the rallies usually start with a knee jerk reaction from the market towards the downside before the sudden reversal to the relentless climb upwards.

In my opinion based on my layman knowledge, the only way out for the US does seem like a default, followed by the good old hard-reset button. Upon the default of Greece and the ailing US economy, the shining gem is indeed in Asia, especially so when this region holds the largest amount of sovereign wealth. While trade will be affected since US is the largest trading partner with most SEA countries, an investment driven growth could take its place and see Asia emerging as a global power.

STI rallies against all odds


STI proved me wrong by rallying 4 consecutive days to close above 3180. This happened against the backdrop of a renewed aid plan for Greece, bailing out the time bomb yet again. It is hard to make sense of the constant 180 degrees change in fundamental sentiments, but the charts paint a clearer picture. It seems like STI has formed a new channel, indicated by the bottom most support line that i have newly added. The validity will be confirmed by a downside move next week due to upper channel resistance.

The usefulness of this information is that a monday/tuesday closing above 3180 invalidates the new channel, making it a clear case to go long on the index. Otherwise, i maintain my bearish stance on the index. The volume is higher than normal, so it does indicate strength in the rally. To sum it up, long above a higher monday/tuesday close depending on trader comfort, or wait for a setup to short should the next few days go into consolidation.

The meaning of the analysis may appear obvious at the surface level, but it does reflect the underlying principle of technical analysis; to let the market tell you where its likely headed, through the indication of lower/higher trading prices.

Euro Crisis-an uphill struggle for STI


In the previous STI outlook, i mentioned that the 3150 point would be a strong resistance, and failure to clear it would strengthen bearish sentiments. The Euro crisis is worsening and the STI responded with 2 gap downs over 11th and 12th. The breakaway gap signals the start of the downleg, and the price on the 8th was a lower high in this wave, compared to the 4th. In short, the momentum has clearly switched to a bearish one and i believe the downside has just started.

In addition, the cluster of candles from 12th to 15th forms a bearish flag, clearly declining in momentum and trading below the moving averages. The projected target is 3024. Traders should hold back on buying for the time being.

Euro Crisis



The Euro Crisis has reentered the picture, and was the focus of the market last week. The ongoing riots, unemployment and rising prices are damaging to the frail state of the Greek economy. An evidence of this lies in the 2-year government bond yields, which started out at 4.5% in 2009, doubled in 2010 to 9.73% and further spiked to 26.65% in July 2011. The sky high bond yield reflects the state of distrust and low confidence in the Greek economy. The Euro-zone is separated into 2, between those giving money and those receiving.

Any man on the street will know that the crisis is bad, but the extend and implication is less clear. Firstly, the economic growth in the Euro zone in general is expected to be weak, with the PIIGS going into negative growth. The huge amount of funds committed by other Euro zone members will render the own economies vulnerable as their ammo are lessened. The week economic outlook translate into investment funding outflow, causing projects to be abandoned, and jobs lost. The PIIGS members will be forced to cut public spending and raise taxes to finance the debts, a situation that hardly stimulates the economy. It will take a prolonged period of time to claw back to positive growth, assuming that the countries do not default.


Secondly, the Euro will likely take another plunge as the fundamental weakness in the region warrants less demand for the currency. Investor confidence will once again be shaken. The last dip in 2010 caused global indexes to retrace in sync and this time round it is likely to happen again. Gold has been on a mad run hitting an all time high of 1586, indicating how little confidence the public has on the currency and equity markets. At least within this year, i expect the crisis to be a recurrent theme and will not be resolved so easily.

Expert Stock Screener

I am writing a review on the APF Expert Stock Screener, a product by AsiaPacFinance. They have launced a time saving excel based screener that aggregates analyst reports from multiple sources, giving investors and traders the key essentials to make investment decisions.

In a concise format, here are the key features:

-Choose from Singapore/Hong Kong/Malaysia market, just to name a few

-Investment bank and brokerage analyst reports are aggregated and compiled, providing a Fair Value Deviation ( % that represents how much the last traded price deviates from an aggregated Fair Value)

-Highlights if the overall analyst opinion is Undervalued or Overvalued

-Technical analysis % indicator that highlights bullish or bearish stocks based on a mixture of Ichimoku and proprietary perimetersClick here for the youtube introduction

The Good:

This is a valuable tool for investors and traders alike, because this handy screener removes the tedious process of looking through reports and gives the investor and trader the bottom line- The fair value. What more, a smart tweak to garner the deviation from fair value, otherwise known as the Upside or downside potential. This suits the investor well as it summarises in essence which stocks are good, and HOW good.

The technical analysis portion is made up of daily/weekly/monthly % indicating how bullish or bearish the stock is. I appreciate the Excel format of the screener, as i am able to quickly filter out the bullish stocks for trading. While my rules of trading are different from the screener, it does its intended job well- To identify higher potential stocks for me to find good technical setups! This does save a lot of time, cutting the need to sieve through the hundreds of stocks on SGX. Furthermore, the categorisation of stock by industry drops me another clue as to the stronger sectors during the trading period.

The Bad:

The inputs that go into the screener are not accessible to the user, so investors who have developed personal preferences in stock selection will not find this useful. For example, the screener is unable to provide lists based on designated P/E ratio range, Debt/Equity ratios etc. The screener is really about the compilation of overall assessment by analysts, so the user will not know what were the reasons behind the recommendation. As explained earlier, this product suits investors who wants the quick answer and does not have the benefit of time to go through individual reports. There is no right and wrong, but simply if it is suitable or not. Investors embarking fresh onto the learning curve should hook on to the screener if they require advice on their picks.

Similarly, the TA portion is limited to the Ichimoku input, which not all traders may be familiar with. The users will need to do some reading to gain confidence and comfort to rely on the signals generated. That being said, Ichimoku Kinkohyo is widely used by Japanese traders and traders that trade the Nikkei and Yen. It is a proven system and has a rich history behind it. My take is that as traders we should be open to ideas, and give new information the chance to be "innocent until proven guilty". The same system may not work for everyone, but it can be the right one for you.

In conclusion-

The subscription fee of USD70/ 6months breaks down to approximately USD12/month. This is frankly an inexpensive way to gain an advantage in trading. The site offers a 2 weeks free trial, so you can have a test drive before deciding on a commitment. I believe there is little to lose with the free trial offer, as you will only be billed if you decide to sign up after it. Give the Expert Stock Screener a try, you bear little risk as a customer; but you can reap the rewards of carefully selected high potential stocks.

Request for specific stock/index analysis

Good morning, in order to serve my readers better, i am open to any request for stock/index analysis. Feel free to drop me a mail or comment and i will get to it.

Triple Bank Analysis






UOB-
STI is rallying close to the mentioned resistance of 3150, but the banks are showing signs of a pullback. Notice how UOB led the upward charge on sharp volume on 30th of June, via a gap. The gap has since been closed and the last traded doji formation does not reflect well on the chances of a follow through rally on the STI. Notice how the volume has dipped over the last trading sessions, and the weak rebound that penetrated 19.74 resistance but only to close below.

While the overall trend is still up, the odds point towards a pullback for this leg now.

OCBC-
This is the weakest performing bank over the month, proven by the bearish candle followed by several spinning tops. Friday's rebound is almost negated with a open high- close low trading day, coupled with low volume.

DBS-
The strongest performer among the three finished the week with a shooting star, reinforcing the overall weakness of the financial sector.

Overall, going by past trends, weakness of the financial sector on a rising index usually foreshadow a decline. With the weak close in the Dow Jones Index, i expect Monday to open slightly below 3150. I would urge traders not to get too excited should the index pierce above 3150 during intraday trading. Rather, it would be wise to observe the close to see if any surge is genuine. I expect Monday's closing to be weak.

Non market related update

I am now a Certified Financial Technician, having sat for and passed both levels of the exam. I am elated and satisfied with what i have achieved, and this is a good push for me to perform market analysis at a higher level.

On a side note, i have started a small ebay business selling colored shoe bags, they are well sized to fit shoes with plenty of allowance and the colors are vibrant!


Visit my store

Having completed the IFTA CFTe levels 1 and 2, I have made detailed revision notes that adhere closely to the syllabus tested. They are available to CFTe students for a small fee, which is a worthwhile investment to pass the various levels in 1 seating. Furthermore, i will throw in sample papers and the required readings (10 books) for free if anyone purchases the notes. Do contact me at stidaytrader@gmail.com for any queries.

Staying objective amidst newfound optimism


The headlines spelled doom for Greece 2 weeks ago, but as swiftly as they appeared, they have now been replaced with fresh optimism. In the post last fortnight, i picked up a possible rebound, but was not sure where it would lead to. The STI is approaching multiple resistance around the 3140-3150 region, and that could be the turning point for this leg. The past performances in Nov 2010, January and March have turned out to be peaks, with the exception of April. Using the momentum indicators, that is 3/4 hit rate. The emphasis however, remains on the price action and it should be closely watched.

If the index trades above 3150 on high volume, i will take that as a failed short setup and that confirms a bull run from that point. However, a weak performance, defined as multiple closings below day opening prices/ reversal day bar will point the odds towards a downside slide.

Hence, for trading strategy, it is wise to take profits and standby for a short setup. If the upside break occurs, one should be flexible enough to go long.

That being said, the STI has been consolidating sideways for slightly more than half a year now, yet it remains above 3000. With the ongoing weakness in the Euro and US economies, it is without a doubt that Asia is the region on the hot list. The currencies, often an indicator of relative economic strengths, point towards a strong Sing dollar amidst all the uncertainty. The confidence in the economy will spillover to investments and funds flow. I believe after the correction, a strong bull market will emerge.

Uncertain times: What lies ahead for the STI?



The news hoarding the headlines is the possible default of Greece, which has been in the background until 2 weeks ago. The new attention has brought the STI lower, with many suggesting the possible breach of the 3000 psychological support. As doomsayers will propagate- its all downhill from there.

The world economy is not at its brightest right now, with China and the US reporting a slow down in economic growth. Crude oil (assuming world demand is an indicator of world economy), which traded into the 110s a month ago, has dipped to a frail 93/ barrel.

For Singapore, the imported inflation takes a back seat, but the new concern is a slowdown in world trade, which will take its toll on the economy in time to come. Shipping counters like Cosco and Yangzijiang have reacted, dipping sharply over the last 2 weeks. The current sentiment is extremely grim, but this might also be the opportunity traders are looking for.

The first chart indicates that the long term support has been broken, which coincides with a symmetrical triangle formation. The projection takes the index all the way down to 2970, which was the support for the crash in Feb 2011. I suspect this level will hold as it did the last time, and as the trading activities play out, the EU will announce new plans to aid the Greek situation.

The course of action now is to step aside and watch for signs of support after 3000 is broken. The momentum indicators point towards an oversold condition, which is always a precursor for a rally. whether this rally is a short term bounce or a genuine one, the price action will tell the story in time to come. For now, the volume over the last few days show an increasing trend, suggesting a strong selldown. One of the clues that a turning point is ahead will be the drying out of trading volume. I will be keeping my eyes open for that.

Get short on the market


The last few trading days put forward a very strong case calling for a short. At this point, i am confident in putting up a fresh short position, although i am already short. The cluster of red bars are perculiar- notice how they gap up 3 consecutive trading days, on the strength of the DJI making new highs. Our local market however formed a clear rejection zone and converged into a triangular pattern. The momentum indicators point towards divergence and the latest trading day has confirmed the downside breakout. Volume is increasing, signalling increased selling.

Target 3078. Sell in May indeed.

STI update


The trading over the last 2 weeks is a classic example of technical analysis in action. Old and cliche as it is, history does seem to repeat yet again. As with the blue chips, the index rallied on dwindling volume over early march, reversing on a trendline bounce off. The dip on 15th march is significant as it was on high volume, gapping down through the channel support and historical support. This is followed by two days of sideways that tested 2971 but failed to close above. Friday's movement is an engulfing price pattern and 2971 was tested yet again (nearly), but ended the day with a lower close.

What is the feel of the market? The clues that the market is giving shows downside biased ness still. As much as i am tempted, there is no need to jump the gun yet. I feel that it is better to wait for some signs of basing and reversal before going long. Short wise, the signals do indeed coincide with a short call. The selling has been for sometime now though, so there are already a good amount of shorts in the market. I feel that caution should be exercised should one intend to go short. Position trading should be held back on the short side. Instead, it may be better to do intraday shorting, until the market dries up in downside momentum. Lets see how it goes from here.

Japan tragedy and the aftermath

My heart goes out to the people of Japan, who are hit with the nuclear fallout right after the tsunami. I am very impressed with the strength of the people, looking at how the twitter messages of extraordinary deeds have happened.

Currently, the damage made to Japan is at best a guesswork; it has been reported that the various automobile and steel factories have been shut down due to damages. Other sectors include electronics, SLR camera manufacture and semiconductor devices. According to asahi.com, "Tohoku region--Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Aomori, Akita and Yamagata--accounts for 6.4 percent of Japan's gross domestic product." This is the area that is affected by the tsunami.

This is a critical hit and an initial damage- i believe there could be more fall out as the domino effect comes into play. In addition, the radiation fall out has added on to the uncertainty in the country and it could take a while before an assessment on the total damages can be made.

Meanwhile, i will stay out of the market and look for opportunities to go long. I have covered my shorts on SIMSCI. It is very tempting to buy into Nikkei, as it has been supported at 8000. However, the increased volatility and range, as well as the possibility of further complications stack the risk beyond my appetite.

Short on market

I will post the chart on a later time. I am short on the STI futures as the rebound has been weak. STI could not close above 3120. Selling could see it fall towards 3000 region.

Trading for a living

The golden question: is it possible?

I will answer that with a resounding yes. After seeing the failure and success cases, i am convinced it is. There are so many profiles of traders out there, who quit jobs ranging from doctors, civil servants, and technicians to become full time traders. They found their success through trading in a way uniquely suited to themselves.

What does it take?

Realistically, i would say a minimum of SGD 50k capital and 4-5 years of experience in the market. I first started trading in 2008 proper, that is coming to slightly more than 3 years for me. As a student still, obviously i do not have the capital required. However, i still believe in trading my account no matter what size it is (not money i need to live on obviously) as my experience grows with each trade. It will still be different transiting into a bigger account in the future, but this is definitely a solid foundation. The draw downs, losses and disgusting feelings are part of the rite of passage i guess. At least for myself, i charted out this learning path where i force myself to absorb whatever is thrown at me.

Resilience. I can't emphasise this enough. In a bull run or a straight trending market, any beginner will be thrilled at their sheer genius for hitting the jackpot right away; but in the longer run, the key is how not to give back the profits when the market changes. An accountant goes from university to work and its not until the weekends are burned for a few years before they gain the experience required to become Chartered Public Accountants. Athletes grind out at the gym for hours, take part in exhibition matches and competitions to gain the edge needed for performing at a professional level. Why would trading be any different?

It is so ironic sometimes, when i recall how i went one big round just to be back staring at the fundamentals of trading that was taught to me right at the beginning. It is so easy to dismiss the common wisdom of cutting losses short, letting profits ride, of trendlines, support and resistances and of things so simple that any trader should have known when they started out. Yet it is often through experience that these seemingly simple knowledge start to make sense as they get ingrained together with trades and market conditions.

What is the way forward then?

I am halfway through my Certified Financial Technician qualification, which i value a lot as a personal milestone. I am into the 4th year of my trading journey and i am still eager about learning. Looking back, i have never been more glad that i started out on this journey. Going forward, the plan is to accumulate the capital required as i start out on work proper and to continue taking relevant courses. I will switch to the US futures market as well as the FX market to better suit my office hours. The local market will be traded on a positional basis. I will be free to venture into professional trading after my bond with the organisation is up, in 4 years time. I will have clocked a solid 8 year experience by then, and my capital will be more than ready. It does feel good to have such a passion to guide the years ahead and aim towards.

Testing times


This month has been a frustrating stretch for me. I tried to short the SnP several times when there was a hint of a drop as i was anticipating it from the indicator divergences. It isnt a good feeling when 4 of my trades are stopped out in a row, only to miss the final valid trade because i did not put it up. I guess i am an amateur after all.

Well, the drop could take SnP down to 1260, and even 1240 if the previous support does not hold. I am a follower of Carl Futia, you guys can try googling his blog. According to him, this drop is telling of a 50-75 point break but it will obviously not be a straight drop. He has my respect due to his track record in full time trading so i do take his views seriously.

Putting this into the Singaporean context, STI is likely to be on a downward trend from here, with commodity stocks like Wilmar, Golden Agri already taking the lead. Genting has also fallen to near the $2 level. I still view this as a bull market, so this is a good chance to load up, especially Genting. I will look for levels to load up once i see how it reacts to the 1.95-1.98 support region. Meanwhile, for those that are not already short, i suggest to stay out of the market. Definitely no longs yet.

Happy Chinese New Year in advance! =)